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14/11/2005 Azahari's death not the end of JI:
A poster in Jakarta shows deceased terror suspect Azahari Husin and his uncaptured ally, Noordin Top. [Reuters]
Fact Box
 
  • Azahari was considered one of Jemaah Islamiah's key figures and its leading bomb expert;
  • Azahari has been implicated in several deadly bomb blasts in Indonesia since 2000;
  • Most analysts believe Azahari's death will only be a temporary setback for JI;
  • JI has been able to regroup in the past following arrests of key figures such as Abu Bakar Bashir and Hambali;
  • Azahari's key ally, fellow Malaysian JI operative, Noordin Top, is still on the run;
  • Regional leaders warn that we must remain vigilant in the fight against terror despite Azahari's death.
Dr Azahari Husin's death is a coup for Indonesian authorities, but it may only be a temporary setback for the Jemaah Islamiah terror network.
The death of one of South East Asia's most wanted men, Jemaah Islamiah bomb expert, Dr Azahari Husin, is a win in the war on terror but not the end of the terrorist organisation, experts warn.

"From an Indonesian point of view it's an important development because they've been after him now for five years, and to finally catch one of the senior people within JI that's quite a coup for them," said Clive Williams, director of terrorism studies at Canberra's Strategic and Defence Studies Centre.

"But it won't spell the end of JI or spell an end to its operational capability. It simply means that it's going to be a setback for them but it's one that they could overcome."

Master bomb-maker
Malaysian-born Azahari was killed during a stand-off with police in a small town in East Java from where he was believed to be planning more deadly attacks like the ones which have claimed hundreds of lives in Indonesia since 2000.

Considered JI's foremost bomb expert and attributed with authorship of the organisation's bomb manual, Azahari has been linked to a number of attacks, including: co-ordinated church bombings across Indonesia on Christmas Eve 2000; the 2002 and 2005 Bali bombings; the 2003 Marriot Hotel bombing in Jakarta; and the 2004 Australian Embassy bombing in Jakarta.

Thirty newly-made bombs were found in the house where Azahari was hiding out prompting reports his death may have thwarted plans for another attack somewhere in Indonesia.

Ability to regroup
But even with Azahari out of the picture, it is unlikely the network will disappear because there will be others willing to step up, says Abdullah Razak Baginda, executive director of the Malaysian Strategic Research Centre.

"I think one Azahari down doesn't mean that the whole organisation suffers. There may be more Azahari's that will come out. A lot depends on to what extent the organisation justifies the demise of Azahari.

"I'm sure they would turn it to their advantage by saying that's Azahari's sacrifice and one should not let Azahari's idea and image and dream just go to waste. And this could entice younger people to come and defend Azahari's death."

This is not the first time JI has had to contend with losing a leading figure. The group's spiritual leader, Abu Bakar Bashir, is in prison on criminal charges related to the first Bali bombings and former operations chief, Hambali, has been in US custody since being caught in Thailand in 2004.

Clive Williams says Jemaah Islamiah may have already been planning for the loss of Azahari.

"They certainly would have expected that a person that's as prominent as [Azahari] would be caught up with eventually, and they would have planned for that eventuality."

Key JI figures still at large
The heat is sure to be turned up on Azahari's key ally and countryman, Noordin Mohammad Top, who remains at large. Also connected to the Marriot Hotel and Australian Embassy bombings, some experts consider Noordin to be the brains behind Azahari's technical skills.

Abdullah Razak Baginda says Noordin Top may take this opportunity to show his hand.

"I would imagine that Noordin Top would do one of two things to suggest that he's still around and still effective. Whether to his backers or to his movement he would want to do something to ensure that the demise of Azahari has not affected his credentials.

"So you could see him being more active than before. Alternatively he could of course withdraw for a while and take a respite and get out of Indonesia ... to calm things down before he can reactivate his action and his activities."

The other Jemaah Islamiah bomb expert, known as Dulmatin, has been in hiding in the southern Philippines since escaping Indonesia after being implicated in the 2002 Bali bombings.

Dulmatin is third on the US government's most wanted terrorist list behind Osama bin Laden and Iraqi al Qaeda chief, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. He is now involved in the Abu Sayyaf guerrilla group which is fighting for an independent Muslim state in the south of the Philippines. It is not known if he is planning to resume any activity outside of the Philippines.

War on terror must continue
Just who may be emerge as a key figure for JI in the future is unclear, but one thing regional leaders agree on is that the war on terror in South East Asia is not over.

Malaysia deputy prime minister, Najib Razak, says while Azahari's death is a major setback for JI, authorities must remain vigilant in the fight against terror.

"[Azahari's death] does not mean that JI cannot regroup again ... We have to be as alert as possible in our efforts to wipe out terrorism in this region," he said.

Australian prime minister, John Howard, agrees.

"We're going to be embroiled in this struggle for years into the future. We can't allow it to interrupt our normal lives, but we have to accept [that] we have to change our lives in some respects and we have to have laws and constraints that we don't normally like in order to protect ourselves as best we can."


This story uses interviews conducted for Radio Australia's Asia Pacific program.
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